Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.
Implied Yes
5%
Snapshot Δ
-1.5¢
Volume
$2.9M
Snapshot path
11% → 9%range 9–11% · 40 pts
Why it moved
No significant attributed move in the recent snapshot window. Monitor catalysts below.