US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

88%

Snapshot Δ

-1.5¢

Volume

$248.8K

Snapshot path

88% → 87%range 85–88% · 40 pts

Why it moved

No significant attributed move in the recent snapshot window. Monitor catalysts below.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

No keyword-matched items.

Current catalysts

Global move away from oil could lead to conflict and migration , experts say
Ageing Stolen Generations survivors face health crisis
Von der Leyen pushes back against Trump over Greenland

Related markets

Taiwan–China Tensions

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?

31%

—

leadership$12.5K

Taiwan–China Tensions

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in July 2026?

—

diplomatic$9.4K

Taiwan–China Tensions

Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?

—

leadership$30.0K

Continue on Polymarket →

StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in July 2026?

Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?