US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

Snapshot Δ

+4.0¢

Volume

$1.6M

Snapshot path

28% → 32%range 28–32% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Urgent : U . S . forces struck 3 Iranian crude oil carriers -- Central Command - Xinhua
english.news.cn
US military hits three Iranian oil tankers after navy ships targeted
lancashiretelegraph.co.uk
South Korea Reviews Military Options to Enter Strait of Hormuz
breitbart.com
US military says it struck 3 Iranian oil tankers after Navy warships were targeted with missiles
oskaloosa.com

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

US envoys in Moscow in new push for peace between Russia and Ukraine
runcornandwidnesworld.co.uk

Current catalysts

Israeli airstrikes on Lebanese village kill 12 , plus other key Mideast developments
China exports accelerate on strong demand for autos and high - tech goods
Inflation Risks Cloud Interest Rate Outlook , Nifty Breaks Key Support

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Continue on Polymarket →

StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?