Persian Gulf / Middle East
Market
0%
Venue Yes · not forecast
Analyst
high
Judgment quality
Evidence
high
Source coverage
Freshness
high
Data recency
Coverage heuristic (112 open markets, 50 fused items, theatre summary present) — not a verified probability of outcome.
Heuristic
Elevated US–Iran tensions over nuclear negotiations, sanctions enforcement, and Strait of Hormuz security. Second Trump administration posture emphasizes maximum pressure while keeping a diplomatic channel open. 112 open Polymarket contracts are linked.
Based on theatre summary · not a finished verified assessment
Polymarket
| Market | Yes | Snapshot Δ | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? leadership · $65.9M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? diplomatic · $44.1M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? leadership · $25.9M | 8% | 0.0¢ |
Watch
Decision support
Heuristic
lancashiretelegraph.co.uk · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
US military struck three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation after Iranian forces targeted US Navy warships with missiles, marking significant escalation in US-Iran military confrontation.
oskaloosa.com · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
US military struck three Iranian oil tankers in retaliation after Iranian forces targeted US Navy warships with missiles, marking significant escalation in US-Iran military confrontation.
english.news.cn · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
U.S. Central Command conducted strikes against 3 Iranian crude oil carriers, representing a major escalation in direct military action targeting Iran's critical oil export infrastructure.
Heuristic
Heuristic
Heuristic
Heuristic
Chronology
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
AP News in Brief at 11 : 04 p . m . EDThngnews.com
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
Inflation Risks Cloud Interest Rate Outlook , Nifty Breaks Key Supportequitybulls.com
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
Stock markets decline in early trade amid rising oil prices , West Asia crisisnewindianexpress.com
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
Iran says it plans new Gulf exclusion zonestandard.net.au
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
Entities
Curated
Network
Heuristic
Citations
| Polymarket ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? commodity_proxy · $11.8M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? commodity_proxy · $11.6M | 18% | +1.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? leadership · $6.6M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? territorial_control · $6.3M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? territorial_control · $5.9M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? treaty · $5.5M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? treaty · $4.6M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? treaty · $4.5M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? leadership · $4.5M | 16% | +1.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? leadership · $4.4M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? diplomatic · $3.1M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 15? diplomatic · $2.8M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? treaty · $2.7M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? treaty · $2.7M | 11% | +1.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? diplomatic · $2.5M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? leadership · $2.3M | 5% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? treaty · $2.3M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by July 31? diplomatic · $2.3M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? treaty · $2.2M | 8% | +2.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? treaty · $2.2M | 8% | +1.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7? commodity_proxy · $2.2M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran coup attempt by June 30? leadership · $2.0M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? treaty · $1.6M | 1% | +0.3¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? diplomatic · $1.5M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? commodity_proxy · $1.4M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? treaty · $1.4M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? diplomatic · $1.3M | 6% | +0.8¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? diplomatic · $1.2M | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? treaty · $1.2M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? treaty · $1.1M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? treaty · $1.1M | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? treaty · $978.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? diplomatic · $967.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? commodity_proxy · $943.7K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? diplomatic · $843.1K | 2% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? leadership · $796.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran hold a presidential election by June 30? election · $767.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? diplomatic · $655.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? diplomatic · $635.3K | 5% | +0.1¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by July 15? diplomatic · $569.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? treaty · $550.8K | 14% | +0.1¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30? diplomatic · $524.3K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? commodity_proxy · $288.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $277.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? treaty · $258.5K | 4% | -1.1¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? treaty · $233.5K | 13% | -0.5¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $162.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $148.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? treaty · $138.7K | 10% | +1.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? treaty · $127.4K | 12% | +1.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? diplomatic · $126.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? commodity_proxy · $116.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $116.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by June 30? diplomatic · $115.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $112.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $105.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $104.3K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? diplomatic · $91.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $80.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran legalize gay marriage? leadership · $79.2K | 2% | +0.2¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Pete Hegseth sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $71.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? treaty · $67.0K | 5% | -1.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? diplomatic · $65.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $62.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? diplomatic · $57.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? diplomatic · $55.5K | 2% | -0.1¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $44.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? currency · $41.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? currency · $40.5K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? treaty · $39.2K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? leadership · $38.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? diplomatic · $37.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? diplomatic · $35.8K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $31.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $29.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? treaty · $28.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $28.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $27.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? diplomatic · $26.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will USD reach 1.9M Iranian rials by June 30? currency · $26.7K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $25.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? treaty · $22.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? diplomatic · $22.6K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $20.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $18.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Iran recognize Israel by December 31? diplomatic · $16.7K | 4% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $13.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $13.6K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? treaty · $13.1K | 11% | 0.0¢ | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Pete Hegseth attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $11.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $11.7K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $11.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Turkey sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? diplomatic · $9.9K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $9.7K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $8.7K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $8.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? diplomatic · $8.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? treaty · $7.5K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? diplomatic · $5.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $4.8K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? diplomatic · $3.9K | 1% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Kuwait sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? diplomatic · $3.7K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in July? diplomatic · $2.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $2.0K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? diplomatic · $1.4K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $1.1K | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by June 30? commodity_proxy · $859 | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $768 | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
| Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? diplomatic · $722 | 0% | — | Polymarket ↗ |
breitbart.com · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
South Korea evaluating military deployment options to Strait of Hormuz, signaling potential international coalition expansion in critical oil transit chokepoint.
hani.co.kr · 2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
Kim Jong-un has responded to Trump's dialogue proposal, confirming active communication channel between US and North Korea. Increases probability of diplomatic re-engagement.
themedialine.org · 2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
Iran is reconstituting its missile arsenal while US and Israel strengthen air defenses, signaling an ongoing arms race. Increases risk of military confrontation and sustained regional tensions.
themedialine.org · 2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
Yemeni government forces conducted 133 operations against Houthi targets in a 24-hour period, indicating intensified military activity. Reflects escalation in Yemen's civil war with potential regional spillover effects.
albawaba.com · 2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
CIA reportedly developing new covert strategy to destabilize the Iranian government. Signals potential escalation in US-Iran shadow conflict with implications for regional stability.
Heuristic
runcornandwidnesworld.co.uk · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
US envoys are in Moscow pursuing diplomatic efforts to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine, representing renewed American engagement in ending the conflict.
wmra.org · 2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
US envoys are in Moscow pursuing diplomatic efforts to negotiate peace between Russia and Ukraine, representing renewed American engagement in ending the conflict.
clickondetroit.com · 2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
Top U.S. military commander visited aircraft carrier and participated in Gaza ceasefire talks in Egypt, indicating continued high-level diplomatic and military engagement in Middle East crisis management.
redlandcitybulletin.com.au
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
China export machine strengthens in August as US critiques trade imbalancescmp.com
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
Morning Bid : The yen also risesfinance.yahoo.com
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
China exports accelerate on strong demand for autos and high - tech goodsfinance.yahoo.com
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
Hijacking pirates exploit regional chaos to return to seas off Somaliatheguardian.com
2026-09-08 05:00 UTC
Israeli airstrikes on Lebanese village kill 12 , plus other key Mideast developmentsjournalgazette.net
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
US military hits three Iranian oil tankers after navy ships targetedlancashiretelegraph.co.uk
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
The chancellor is in a bind : is No 11 at odds with Burnham big vision ? | John Healeytheguardian.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
US - Iran Standoff : Key Updates and Flight Changes UAE Residents Need to Know This Evening , September 5gulfnews.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
US military says it struck 3 Iranian oil tankers after Navy warships were targeted with missilesoskaloosa.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
CPC to leave domestic gasoline , diesel prices unchanged next weekfocustaiwan.tw
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
Madeleine Dean : Trump Leadership Is Erratic and Childlikebreitbart.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
Urgent : U . S . forces struck 3 Iranian crude oil carriers -- Central Command - Xinhuaenglish.news.cn
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
South Korea Reviews Military Options to Enter Strait of Hormuzbreitbart.com
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
US envoys in Moscow in new push for peace between Russia and Ukraineruncornandwidnesworld.co.uk
2026-09-05 15:00 UTC
U . S . envoys in Moscow in new push for peace between Russia and Ukrainewmra.org
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
Vacancies slip again as private sector pay growth falls to near six - year lowkentonline.co.uk
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
Trump says Kim Jong - un has responded to proposal for dialoguehani.co.kr
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
Vacancies slip again as private sector pay growth falls to near six - year lowwatfordobserver.co.uk
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
[ News analysis ] Trump is knocking on North Korea door . Will Kim Jong - un let him in ?hani.co.kr
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
Iran Rebuilds Its Missile Force as the US and Israel Replenish Defensesthemedialine.org
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
GB News halts for Trump news - and it a bad look for Burnham | TV & Radio | Showbiz & TVexpress.co.uk
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
[ Column ] Does the US deserve allie trust ?hani.co.kr
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
Yemeni Forces Say They Launched 133 Operations Against Houthis in 24 Hoursthemedialine.org
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
CIA is preparing new plan to cripple the Iranian regimealbawaba.com
2026-08-18 08:45 UTC
World News : Trump says Iran should surrendergdnonline.com
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
Prime Minister , Jordan Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister hold phone callthepeninsulaqatar.com
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
Trump scales back joint military drills with South Koreawlwt.com
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
Prime Minister , Syrian Foreign Minister hold telephone conversationthepeninsulaqatar.com
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
The Electoral Integrity Issue Isnt Israel -- It Islamhotair.com
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
Trump Orders Hegseth to Scale Back Joint Military Exercises With South Koreatownhall.com
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
Iran Is Draining Its Leverage in the Strait of Hormuzhotair.com
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
US - South Korea military drills : Trump cites North Korean relations and Iran policy in call to scale back exercisesbrisbanetimes.com.au
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
Qatar vows diplomatic push to ease regional tensions , ensure free navigation in Hormuz Strait - Xinhuaenglish.news.cn
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
Trump scales back joint military drills with South Koreawmur.com
2026-08-16 22:30 UTC
BETTING SCANDAL : IAF Major Faces Charges Over Polymarket Wagers On Iran , Yemen Strikestheyeshivaworld.com
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
Strait of Hormuz Standoff : Three Vessels Attacked in 72 Hours as Maritime Threat Level Stays Severegulfnews.com
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
Democrats demand answers from Trump on USS Abraham Lincoln conditionsaol.co.uk
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
A New Game of Monopoly : Middle Eastern Pipelines Cannot Replace the Strait of Hormuzfairobserver.com
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
Iran Rejects Trump Strait Of Hormuz U . S . Territory Strategywsfcam.iheart.com
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
Chinese ship sails for Europe through Arcticmanilatimes.net
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
SECRET CHANNEL : Trump Used Kurdish President To Establish Direct Line With Iran IRGC Commander – The Yeshiva Worldtheyeshivaworld.com
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
Iran Rejects Trump Strait Of Hormuz U . S . Territory Strategynewstalk1230.iheart.com
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
Iran challenges Qatar and Kuwait claims about captured pilotsjowhar.com
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
TRUMP SIDES WITH ERDOGAN : President Trump Blocks Israeli Strike In Syria As Turkey Deepens Its Footholdtheyeshivaworld.com
2026-08-16 17:45 UTC
Top US commander visits aircraft carrier , Gaza talks in Egypt and other Mideast newsclickondetroit.com
United States
state · primary actor