Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

Snapshot Δ

-5.9¢

Volume

$1.2M

Snapshot path

9% → 3%range 3–9% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Ossoff Calls Trump Handling of War Uniquely Despicable
politicalwire.com
Kushner : Hamas has 60 - 90 days to hand over weapons
israelnationalnews.com
Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it interferes in deal to open Strait of Hormuz
ky3.com
Iran shifts to fully offensive war policy as deadlock persists
sydneysun.com
The Latest : Trump calls concerns about conditions on USS Lincoln fake | Elections
messenger-inquirer.com
The new directive IDF troops in Gaza received
freerepublic.com

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

Tejaswin Shankar , Treesa - Gayatri , Divya Deshmukh headline Arjuna Awards 2025 list
Ship attacked during Strait of Hormuz transit - The HinduBusinessLine
El - Sayed : KISS And Tell

Related markets

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?

—

diplomatic$38.5K

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?

—

diplomatic$21.4K

Israel–Hamas / Gaza

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?

14%

—

treaty$572

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StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

Related markets

Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?

Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30?

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?