Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.

Implied Yes

10%

Snapshot Δ

-38.0¢

Volume

$115.2K

Snapshot path

68% → 30%range 17–68% · 40 pts

Why it moved

Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.

Heuristic

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Kushner : Hamas has 60 - 90 days to hand over weapons
israelnationalnews.com
Ossoff Calls Trump Handling of War Uniquely Despicable
politicalwire.com
Iran shifts to fully offensive war policy as deadlock persists
sydneysun.com
The new directive IDF troops in Gaza received
freerepublic.com
Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it interferes in deal to open Strait of Hormuz
ky3.com
The Latest : Trump calls concerns about conditions on USS Lincoln fake | Elections
messenger-inquirer.com

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

ZIYAD MOTALA | A billionaire is not a leadership programme
Kushner : No Rebuilding Gaza Until Hamas Disarms | News Radio 690 KTSM
Kushner hails very good meeting with Netanyahu after Hamas talks on Gaza peace plan – Capital FM Kenya

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StratosAmber adds the intelligence layer. We do not execute trades.

Why it moved

Evidence supporting Yes / No

Supports Yes (escalatory / affirmative cues)

Supports No (de-escalatory / negative cues)

Current catalysts

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