Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.
Implied Yes
100%
Snapshot Δ
-3.5¢
Volume
$2.1M
Snapshot path
89% → 85%range 83–90% · 40 pts
Why it moved
Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.