Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.
Implied Yes
39%
Snapshot Δ
-10.5¢
Volume
$892.3K
Snapshot path
56% → 45%range 38–56% · 40 pts
Why it moved
Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.