Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.
Implied Yes
23%
Snapshot Δ
+0.5¢
Volume
$2.6M
Snapshot path
41% → 42%range 41–45% · 40 pts
Why it moved
No significant attributed move in the recent snapshot window. Monitor catalysts below.