Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.
Implied Yes
5%
Snapshot Δ
-2.0¢
Volume
$120.0K
Snapshot path
16% → 14%range 13–16% · 40 pts
Why it moved
No significant attributed move in the recent snapshot window. Monitor catalysts below.