Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026?
Polymarket prices are venue-implied. “Why it moved” uses snapshot deltas without a matched news attribution. Yes/No evidence lists are keyword heuristics on fused items — not resolution criteria.
Implied Yes
7%
Snapshot Δ
-8.0¢
Volume
$302.2K
Snapshot path
23% → 15%range 15–25% · 40 pts
Why it moved
Material snapshot change without matched fused-news attribution.